NDS Weekly 6.3.24 – Not too Hot

Markets ended the shortened trading week down despite Friday’s end of the day rally. Despite the markets recent retreat, May was still a positive month.

For the week, the DJIA closed 0.88% lower while the broader S&P 500 retreated 0.49%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq gave back 1.09%. International markets were mixed last week with the MSCI EAFE Index (developed countries) finishing flat and emerging market equities (MSCI EM) declining 3.09%. Small company stocks, represented by the Russell 2000 Index finished modestly higher by a meager 0.04%. Fixed income, represented by the Bloomberg Aggregate, ticked up 0.04% as yields moved lower on the shorter end of the yield curve. The 10 YR US Treasury moved 5bps higher closing at a yield of 4.52%. Gold prices closed at $2,348/oz. – down 0.50% on the week. Oil prices retreated last week closing at $77.95 per barrel.

Not long ago, markets were convinced that the Federal Reserve (FOMC) could cut rates 5 or 6 times this year.  Now there is basically zero chance they will lower rates at their next meeting as well as their end of July meeting. The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge on inflation, PCE rose 0.3% m/m (2.7%y/y) in April, which was slightly better than expectations, but did little to change that current narrative. The FOMC is scheduled to meet next week where the Fed will publish their anonymous forecasts which could still show one or two cuts this year.

We are back to a regular trading week. Economic releases scheduled this week include the ISM Services PMI released on Monday, JOLTS (April’s job openings and quits) on Wednesday, and the Dept. of Labor May employment report on tap Friday. Let’s make it a great week! 

“Success is getting what you want. Happiness is wanting what you get.”  -  Dale Carnegie